Orbix INVEST views Bitcoin as potentially entering a recovery cycle, supported by continued institutional capital inflows, limited new supply, and prices remaining below previous all-time highs, presenting an opportunity for investors seeking to gradually accumulate Bitcoin over the medium to long term.

Dr. Tanapoom Damraks, Managing Director of Orbix INVEST Co., Ltd., believes the fourth quarter of this year presents an attractive window for gradually investing in Bitcoin under the Orbix BTC Flagship (OBX-BTC) strategy, following nearly a year of market consolidation and increasingly evident signs of recovery. Although Bitcoin has rebounded from its lows, it remains well below its previous peak. At the same time, institutional capital has begun flowing back into the market, and Bitcoin has demonstrated greater resilience to US interest rate increases than many had anticipated. As a result, the current period is viewed as a favorable opportunity for long-term investors to build positions gradually.

The OBX-BTC strategy is designed to generate returns that closely track the movement of Bitcoin prices.

After declining continuously from its peak in October 2025 to a low in mid-2026, Bitcoin has staged a strong recovery and has begun to re-establish a technically bullish trend. It most recently closed at USD 86,620, its highest level since January. Meanwhile, Bitcoin gained 25 percent in August, marking its strongest monthly performance since November 2024 – a signal that the market may be transitioning from a bearish to a bullish phase. Despite the recovery, the current price remains approximately 32 percent below its all-time high of around USD 126,000, leaving room for further upside should underlying fundamentals continue to improve.

On the macroeconomic front, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) raised its policy rate by 0.25 percent to a range of 3.75-4.00 percent, marking its first rate hike since 2023. While such tightening is typically viewed as negative for risk assets, Bitcoin rallied following the decision, suggesting that markets had largely priced in interest rate concerns and that the impact of higher rates may prove less severe than had generally been expected.

Another key supporting factor comes from US Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which recorded net inflows of USD 3.52 billion in August – the highest monthly level of the year. Meanwhile, total net assets across these funds exceeded USD 99 billion, and the number of major asset managers holding the ETFs surged by 150 percent YoY. This reflects the growing acceptance of Bitcoin as an alternative asset class among institutional investors.

In addition, approximately 20.09 million Bitcoins – around 96 percent of the 21 million maximum supply cap – have already been mined into circulation. Following the halving event, the influx of new bitcoins entering the market has decreased significantly, resulting in slower supply growth even as investment demand has continued to increase steadily.

However, Dr. Tanapoom emphasized that Bitcoin remains a highly volatile asset, with year-end price forecasts from financial institutions spanning a wide range between USD 38,000 and USD 170,000. At the same time, ongoing tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran continue to keep energy prices elevated, impacting inflation and interest rate trajectories. Investors are therefore advised to utilize a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy to average their cost basis and reduce the impact of price volatility, rather than making a single lump-sum investment.

Cryptocurrencies and digital tokens are classified as high-risk investments. You may lose your entire investment. Please study carefully and invest according to your risk tolerance level.